Why Half of LA Probate Leads Can't Sell, with Travis Waters of LA Probate Leads

0:01 I like this setup. It's very nice. I've never been on a stream out of course. So, hey, welcome to Probate Weekly. You know, this podcast is designed for real estate agents, attorneys, vendors looking to build their business in the probate space. And one of the common tools we use is data. I use my own a proprietary data, but when I started, I subscribed to data service and made phone calls and did some mailing based on that. I know a lot of people do. And the number services on our website, I try to list and I try to introduce all the data sources, review them, introduce them to people, and get some information. And recently, this guy came across, young guy, younger than my daughter, who has launched this company that has, I think, some unique twists on probate data in Los Angeles. But on his website, it screams over half the probate leads for sale in LA can't legally say you anything. Travis Waters, thank you for joining us from Probate Leads, LA Probate Leads.

0:54 Hi, Bill. Nice to nice to be speaking with you. I'm happy to be on the podcast. So, why can't half the leads, the half the probate leads sell you anything in Los Angeles? So, after you kind of file case, it takes me the median time is 4 and 1/2 weeks to actually before you are allowed to, as the executor, sell your estate. So, for those first 4 and 1/2 weeks, although it might be nice to kind of get your foot in the door and establish yourself as the Realtor® or investor to kind of kind of get that house, it's important to know what you're getting yourself into and to be aware of what situation is kind of proceeding you. So, if you go in and you're expecting, I don't know, them to be all jolly and sell you it out of the gate, then you're wrong and you're expecting the wrong things and you might come in with the wrong approach. And that can that can really hurt your success.

1:49 So in California, we file probate in LA County, you typically get a hearing about 3 days after the filing date. So, we get the data right away. Then we have a hearing. There's exceptions, rare exceptions, but 3 days. But then, even after the hearing, they still have to get approved at the hearing. Once approved, they have to get the bond, then they have to get the letters. So, I actually find the average person doesn't have the authority for about 6 months. So, let's talk about that a little bit. How is your data different in this regard on the authority to sell than some of the other data, which are really just filing data, but they're not really looking at the case. I know in your case you're actually scraping the case data.

2:25 I think with when it comes to this kind of data, I think more is always more. I don't think you want to leave anything out here because even the smallest detail could be the difference between a conversion and a failure. And when conversions mean so much, you really don't want to leave that out. If my data can even help you gain one more conversion with all of this extra data,

2:50 Right. Then I think that's a that's a no-brainer, you know? I think often times there is some good intel in the dockets and whatnot. And so, I think 100% there's no reason not to There's no reason to leave it out, you know what I mean?

3:10 So, I love your website cuz you're really kind of I think I'm only a bit of a data nerd. I was in high school, college on the debate team where you do a lot of data analysis and looking at detailed scientific reports to understand, you know, somebody gives you a research report, well, what does that really mean? And often times it doesn't mean much cuz the data is not accurate. What I when I get approached by data companies, I'll ask them questions. Like, they'll say, "Oh, our leads are three times more likely to sell." Okay, well, based on what? Like, what's the data? What's the you know, the relationship of the data and the correlation coefficient and how, you know, how big's the sample size? And usually they don't want to answer that. What I love about your website is you actually put some data on the website that I think is very insightful, whether you're going to cold call or not. So, for example, your source of data is the LA Superior Court docket. So, does this mean you actually have some sort of way to either scrape or an API that gets you the actual data from the LA County? How you How is that happening?

4:02 It is It is all scraped. It's a It's API. It's an API. So, rather than paying somebody to hit this thing that many companies do is they the old-fashioned way was they had to pay somebody to go to the court and sit at their computer all day. And if you ever went to the court computer room on Mosk Courthouse fourth floor, you'd see some lady there with a notepad and write down notes and stuff and then she had to transpose it and that's where you get typos and different information. And here you're actually scraping the data. So, petition to authority to sell 46 to 77 days. Now, is that Is that the majority? Is that two standard deviations? Like, what does that mean? Cuz I know there's some that don't get authority for 10 years and some get it in 31 days. So, what does that number mean?

4:41 That's So, if I'm not mistaken, the median kind of lies within there and then it's it should be like about one deviation out. This is like the normal range.

4:52 Right. And so, it's interesting 46 days not 30, not 31. And 77, so it tells you that you have to have a strategy that really hits that number, I think, hard. It doesn't mean you don't want to talk to people before and it doesn't mean you don't want to continue with them afterwards, but that's another story. And so, your data is refreshed daily and then you deliver it in CSV, which means that this can be imported into almost any program or a spreadsheet that somebody can use for their cold desk, correct?

5:18 Yeah, exactly. Very easy to use. And like wait, right? Just a CSV can be on your phone, you can click on it open up as well. And so, this is data you're refreshing daily based on the filings. So, I also saw was interesting you took 3,000 open LA estates and you broke the numbers and I believe there's more than that open currently.

5:36 But, maybe not. I don't you know, I haven't looked at least I actually myself pulled the data and we scrape it as well. This is just yeah, we just pulled a sample of 2,003. It's not all of

5:45 Got it. So, it's is So, on this sample, it was fascinating to note that over half, 67%, do not have the authority to sell yet. Yet, everybody's calling them already and mailing them, right?

5:55 Yeah, exactly. So, it's just like a waste of waste of time, you know? Yeah. Or maybe not, but it's I don't I don't want to call it a waste of time because there are certainly situations where somebody doesn't have authority to sell, but they get that phone call and all of a sudden they're kind of head over heels and they want to sell to that person. But, like again, what I was saying before, like it's important to not really like barge to the door and not even get your information right. You know what I mean?

6:26 Yeah, and here's a case where half of them don't have authority and so you need to plan your marketing with that in mind. Like whether that means you mail them more often or less often. At least if you know that you can hit your strategy correctly. But, if you're not aware of that fact, and again, I don't think the companies that sell the data, in my experience in the training, aren't getting this precise. They're not making the phone calls, so they don't really know. And on the other hand, you have the actual you have the actual data, which to me is a proof. And then, 84% have already sold. That's an interesting statistic. So, often times people say they call people and they ghost them. Part of the reason why they're ghosting them is maybe they sold the house, they don't need any help anymore.

7:01 Yeah. And so, the question is as a as a if you're mailing, for example, look at that number. That's 84%. It's almost 30% of your mailing costs would be wasted. And it is wasted cuz they've already they've already sold the house and anything else to sell, typically. That you mail managed to. That's fantastic. 39% just got authority. That's an interesting statistic. So, that's you know, 1% of your people who just recently got their ready to do something.

7:29 Yeah, it's very rare. Once weekly, I think it's like about around the 40 to 45 mark. Who are given authority. Yeah. So, fascinating that you have the data and I think that gives some interesting When you have the data, it gives you some interesting insights into what's happening that other people don't know. I know for me, I also pull data for all the court confirmed sales. And when you look at the spreadsheet, you can see how many there are or aren't, who's doing them or who's not doing them. And I think having the data gives you some specific information. Now, go back to your website. So, the actual data This is what somebody receives. You're telling them what the lead status is, called today, or it's new, ready to call, older lead, which some people should be on not yet and likely to sold. So, is this is this the codes that you're giving people with the data you're getting?

8:15 Yeah, exactly. And you're getting the executor's name and number, the property address, the estimated equity. Now, how are you basing the equity?

8:23 So, we just kind of do a an estimation based on area, like kind of median property value around there, plus we know the number of beds and baths and the square footage. So, with all that information, you can kind of get a you can actually have like a pretty accurate guess. Usually, it's around 12% away from the actual value.

8:47 And so, how long they've owned it, the case number, and the next hearing, which you think is also great data to watch cuz if you're following up with the customer, what better way to do that than follow up on the case. I know And the another thing I found fascinating, 20 cases enter the file each week, which okay, that sounds about right. And 20 become callable. Now, I kind of thought to myself, but it's only 20. So, if these are crossing the callable, you better These are high-value calls, but there's only, you know, in a 5-day work week, there's only four a day to make those calls. Why would you not be making those phone calls?

9:20 I don't know. I think So, yeah, those 20 each week 20 new come in that are actually able to sell, right? That's kind of what that means. Right. So, yeah, I mean, I think that's the always the first priority is to get over there first thing on a Monday, you want to be the first person out there making those calls because bottom line is you're competing with other people, right? And the second you let somebody else get a leg up on you're throwing away conversions.

9:51 Yeah, I think it gives you a chance to do that. And again, I often tell people, "What else you doing to generate business from this?" And in some cases, you're giving to them a lot of data they could go back and look at the older leads, decide how they want to nurture them. Are you getting the attorney information as well or not?

10:08 No. And then And so, what a couple of these looks like on your system? So, here's a case. This case was filed it's a code three, ready to call. Letters were issued March 19th. So, this is it filed January 14th, which is probably my birthday for those who are tracking that. And so, 2 months later, they got their letters issued, which means they had a hearing probably around February 19th. And it took them about 30 days to get the bond, get the paper to the court, the court to sign it, now it's actually issued. So, just interesting fact how that watches. You have a intestate, interesting note, next hearing is in Department 11. Property address, estimated equity, who the executor is, their phone number, and the amount of assets. So, this is the information I would have to call somebody on a callable lead.

10:55 And then actually, we I haven't updated the website yet, but on top of this, we have three new columns, which I think are actually probably our most our most important. We have whether or not the house has been appraised yet. So, I think that's very important, right? Knowing whether or not the executor already has a number in mind can totally reshape the plan of attack, the strategy. And also like kind of how good of a deal you think you're going to get on the house, right? If they already have a number in mind, then you're working with much less leeway and leverage than you would be otherwise.

11:32 Right. And the other two columns, one is a very detailed description of the actual docket files. So, it goes into all the like kind of niche areas to really make sure you're not leaving any information out. Cuz like I said, I think in this situation more is always more. And then I compile all of those like already features and I give you kind of a like a plan of attack and a way to actually go about targeting the executor using all of that data. And so, it kind of it catches all the little niches and whatnot and then it builds it around that.

12:13 And then on your website you have this nice market report, which I think is fascinating. And I think you know, this itself could be a great piece to share with attorneys, fiduciaries, families who don't understand. Yeah. So, new to see new to seeing estates filed 373 in the month. I would just in round numbers seem like about 500, but some of those are different types of forms as well. 61 estates are granted the authority to sell during the month. So, it's interesting you can see that there's a monthly backlog of over 300 cases that have applied but still don't have the authority. That tells you why probate takes long. There's a good hint. There's 2808 open cases in LA County right now. Of which 270 have the live notice to sell or notice of proposed action. So, they're planning to sell at some level. Either they're planning The notice of proposed action could be done when they decide to sell and list a property or could be done when they have a contract. There's different ways to do that. And the new filings and with no will and those are intestate. Fascinating statistics, I think that you're giving. And then you update this monthly or when do you

13:16 Yeah, once a month I'm going to go through and update this. I think it's they're very important numbers that I don't think a lot of people really look at. I think

13:26 Right. I think people are kind of focused on the wrong things when it comes to this kind of data. Right. It's not hard in a sense it's not hard to do this. I mean I mean what you're doing isn't literally rocket science. No. But you hit this niche. You hit this niche and figure it out some of the key metrics and you're making those available to people. So you so theoretically either you or somebody else could do that in other counties around the country and that information I think would be really helpful.

13:51 Oh, for sure. I totally agree. I think I think people have the capabilities to do what I'm doing, but for some or another reason I don't know if it's out of out of laziness or whatnot, but they choose to leave out a lot of this key data and just kind of deliver the same old same old with whatever you get the phone number or whatever, but you're leaving out a lot of meat on those bones which I mean anything that can help a conversion is worthwhile in my opinion.

14:18 And so two numbers to invest plan around 103 days is the mean time from a filing to a sale. And that's based on what? You have a You have a filing in the court information. How are you picking it up on the sale side?

14:32 There's a There's a sale notice now. They do They have a tracker of all the sales. Got it. And so 103 days is the average for filing where I don't I think that's you know, if average marketing time is 30 days that leaves you 90 days for you know, but it tells you some fall out have to get resold which is you know, common in all real estate. And then 50% This is an interesting one where the probate referee has not yet filed the inventory and appraisal. It's fascinating to me that people don't do that cuz I would think if you're serious about probate why wouldn't you file it right away? You need to get it done. And yet to me that's to me that's a sign that most attorneys don't really know what they're doing in this space. And I This is a fact I can document 9% attorneys in my county I'm sorry, 9% probate cases with attorneys have done one or less probate in the last year.

15:26 So, you know, it's not I mean to say that they're doing they're doing other things, but they're not doing probate cases regularly. And that's as and pro per especially not. And then your data comes from the LA Superior Court system and you offer a free week. Talk to Talk about the What's your offer that you're offering people who are interested in your data?

15:45 If you are an investor who buys in LA County, I do offer a free week at the moment. Cuz I think like the best way to get your Like I believe in my data and I know that it's the best thing there that there is. And so I figure why not give someone a free week and once you've gotten a free week, you'll understand exactly what I mean. I don't want to spend all this time pestering you and kind of like trying to convince you again with this big sales pitch. I'd rather you just use it yourself and then you'll know what I'm talking about. And you'll see. I think And if you don't like it, you don't like it and then there's no time wasted.

16:22 You know, I got to say what really intrigued me about you Travis when we met is there is a whole industry that buys the same national data source data and resells it. And the problem with data is limited. And I think that you have to have some sort of competitive advantage. And in my mind, my success has always been knowing the market better than my competition cuz I pulled my own data. And it's a lot of work, you know, it's not cheap. And but without that you're kind of flying blind. And what you've done here is I think given those who are interested just now some really deep insights. I think it's worth the any real estate agent or attorney who's trying to build a business, this is data you should know to make decisions on where to market, how to business, lead conversions, follow-up times. This is like critical data that I think would surprise most people compared to where they think they are. So, I have applied you for this venture.

17:14 Thank you. And you know, I look forward to continuing. Any questions? Anything else you want to say? Anything I left off here that we need to talk about as far as your program? I've got nothing else to say. I hope everybody enjoyed what they saw and they liked the twist on the whole the whole lead thing.

17:31 Well, you're offering a free sample. You know, I don't go to Costco cuz I keep kosher, but I would go there if I wasn't I would live for I think I love free samples. I think it just tells people that you're that you believe in what you're doing enough to put your work on the line rather than some fancy sales pitch. So, Travis Waters, LA Probate Leads [phone number]. You get [email address] or the website laprobateleads.com. Again, I would really urge you to take a look at that report. Updates a month. I have just discovered it while prepping for this call. So, I'm sure I'm going to check on it regularly. Even though I pulled the data myself, there's something about somebody else's perspective that is always very enlightening. So, and then there's the website if you're interested in more. I guess I should have pulled that back up sooner. Over half the probate leads for sale in LA can't really sell you anything. It's a fascinating statistic. Travis, thank you so much for joining us today on Probate Weekly.

18:19 Thank you so much, Bill. Have a nice day. And for the rest of you, this is Probate Weekly. We get together every week to learn how to be better serve our customers and I think also be more effective as business people. Usually have probate attorneys, but in this case it was a vendor. I think had some really good insight. Whether you're an attorney building your business or a real estate agent, this is data you should know. And if you're not in LA County, you should find this data in your county. Either find somebody who can do it for you. It's getting easier all the time. Or try to talk Travis into doing it for your county if you can. Anyway, I'm Bill Gross @billgrossprobate. As always, make today your best day ever. Thanks so much.